Executive Forecast 2023: Resilient

The resilient category will grow in 2023 and continue to take share within flooring. It is difficult to determine growth percentage with the complexity in the market and the uncertainty in the economy. However, LVT will be favored within all categories of hard surface and win share.

Strong economic headwinds will continue to impact the industry and the resilient category in 2023. These headwinds will affect the consumer in the retail environment as well as single-family builder. However, the category will grow.

More challenging economic conditions will potentially result in a downturn in pricing in the market. With all the product features and higher-quality products available, there is no need to race to the bottom. Purchasers of the product will need to stay focused on quality and make sure corners are not being cut in the supply chain.

The WPC segment will continue to see innovation in 2023. As the leader in innovation in the industry, Shaw will continue to provide new and exciting products for all customers in 2023.

The No. 1 initiative is service for both our COREtec brand and Shaw Floors Floorté line. As 2022 progressed, we were able to establish a much better service position for our customers across our total product portfolio and distribution footprint. This will only accelerate in 2023 and Shaw will have more products—and more of the right products—closer to the customer.

We are forecasting a similar year to 2022 in volumes with a slightly different mix of product and origin. But overall, we believe the sales of our main categories—Atroguard waterproof laminate, Firmfit SPC and Novocore Q acoustic engineered vinyl—will remain strong.

We see it affecting more segments than others. For example, the slowdown in new and existing home sales versus the rise in multi-family segment. We believe remodel and replacement will be consistent with 2022. We also see Asia-based freight reducing, which will impact pricing.

A) High inventory levels in units and in value will be a challenge to sell off in the next several months. This will make it a challenge to get new programs launched. B) As in every fast-growing segment, there is a need for clear product standards—this will help to avoid very-low-quality products entering the market.

We are committed to innovation and growing our customers’ business, differentiating them from competition.

We are excited about our digital printing line where we will be the first to manufacture digitally printed synchronized embossed SPC in the USA. In Asia, we are investing in equipment for manufacturing additional Quiet products, which is a category we strongly believe in.

We are planning for another strong year. Although there is some concern related to consumer spending and home construction, we feel there is still plenty of business and demand across all our channels and segments for 2023. Our projections are to deliver double-digit growth.

Increased prices for everyday goods like food, fuel and utilities will impact decisions for potential flooring purchases on the retail side. Commercially, we are still seeing strong demand across all segments, not just jobs that were delayed and are now back on schedule but new spend.

We will continue to face labor shortages not just in the trade but in all facets of our businesses, including business partners. Fortunately, there are organizations like the FCEF working to highlight installation careers to younger generations. Businesses, ours included, are reviewing and adjusting pay rates to stay competitive.

There is always opportunity in our category to expand on design flooring options. At Karndean, we are always looking for ways to elevate style and design across all our flooring product types to offer diversified options to meet every flooring need.

Our biggest initiatives for 2023 are to continue to invest in people, marketing and inventory to grow our footprint and to provide the first-class service and experience that we are all used to. Having a clear understanding of our goals and to communicate internally and to our customers that we want to be the best partner available.

Whether you believe we’re in a recession or not, we’ve all seen things slow down. So, I think there’s a lot of pressure on all industries. I think we will see this slowing well into Q2 next year. My hope is that we start to see some rebound mid-year 2023.

One of two things will have to happen for a rebound to start. 1) Either home prices, the cost of living, comes back down, or 2) interest rates are reduced. We go through these down phases periodically and we’re hitting one now. It’s honest, but we have to figure out how to work through it.

I think you’ve got a lot of things that are out there in the geopolitical climate that may dictate where product can be brought in from. We’ve seen an easing in cost on the import side of the supply chain. So, you’ve got some advantages there. So, it’s going to be a challenge to see if domestic suppliers can compete.

I think the opportunity, for us at least, is to go out and be aggressive and continue to try and take market share. How do we do that? I think a lot of it is going to be on who has stock available, the right looks, competitive prices and can service and fulfill orders quickly. If you can do that, I think you’ll continue to grow your business.

For us, it’s to size our portfolio of product and source where we can be the most competitive in the marketplace. We’ve got to get out and be more aggressive and continue to sell. We are launching quite a bit of new product, and we’ve got more already on tap for the latter part of next year, assuming our economy does start to improve in the summer. We’ve got a plan.

We see continued strength in premium products that deliver value to the customer. Lower-end goods may decline slightly as some projects are put on hold, but high-end residential replacements keep moving forward.

Getting pricing right and providing a premium value for the customer is critical. We continue to look at ensuring our products are priced precisely to meet customer expectations and ensure an easy path to purchase.

We must continue to lead on innovation and design that meets what our customer is looking for. We plan on leaning into the Cali brand’s unique California styling to provide a fresh and fun flooring experience.

Resilient products continue to focus on features and style—two areas where Cali excels. Customers will continue to look for the best balance of features-to-value and our West Coast style helps make that a far more convincing decision.

Cali’s preparing for a big rollout of new products and categories in the coming year. We’re also opening new distribution centers in key regions across the country, aimed at providing faster, more predictable deliveries of all that new product.

Demand for SPC rigid core continues to remain strong. With that, I anticipate continued growth into 2023.

The overall economy is slowing as inflation has driven prices higher, interest rates have increased and government COVID-19 payments are ending. For the SPC rigid core category, these factors may slow growth, but with continued improvements rigid core will continue to grow and take market share.

Import purchases may be delayed as the market absorbs higher inventory levels currently held by many suppliers. With strong demand for SPC rigid core products, these inventories should sell through within a reasonable period of time.

At Wellmade, we anticipate continued growth as we ramp up additional production and supply products produced in both China and our now fully operational U.S. plant.

Wellmade will continue to develop and expand our products that are produced state-side in Cartersville, Ga. We’ll also release new SPC rigid core and MGO-core products designed for use in commercial, residential and DIY markets.

Nobody knows what 2023 is going to look like. It all depends on how the U.S. economy is going to act in Q1-Q2 2023. Home sales are stalling and a lot of new construction is stopped for now. We’re not sure about the growth but it’s probably going to be a choppy year for the industry.

It all depends on inflation and how the supply chain is going to impact that. I think the appetite for buying anything is going to be very low. Sellers don’t want to move into a new house and pay double the interest. I think it’s going to be an interesting year. We need to see how so many variables play out.

I think one major challenge this category has been facing for several years now and I think could move into next year is the race to the bottom in SPC. SPC started with good quality products and suddenly thin, low-quality, commodity SPC entered the market and burned a lot of dealers.

The opportunities for 2023 are in providing solutions to the challenges SPC is facing right now. We are working on those solutions right now.

At Surfaces 2023 we will have the biggest product launch in our company’s history—and not just new products but a lot of new innovations. It will be a big show for us. We’re also opening multiple new distribution centers in the U.S. It is going to be a big year for Republic.

We are cautiously optimistic for modest growth in the category for the upcoming year. We think the rigid product category in particular will continue to outpace all other product category’s growth.

The decrease in disposable income will limit discretionary spending along with higher interest rates, which will work against growing the market particularly in new home builds and existing home purchases.

Market pricing and material costs quickly changing will be an obstacle. Supply chain and labor shortages have yet to be fully resolved as well. Maintaining an innovative portfolio and the ability to provide great service to the customer is paramount to overcoming these issues.

Tarkett Home has an opportunity to grow across all resilient products and segments next year. Retail opportunities should continue to grow from the strength of our distribution partners and upcoming introductions in our ProGen and NuGen SPC lines.

We want to showcase Tarkett Home as a brand in the market synonymous with premiere design and performance. I believe the team’s work on the upcoming additions will achieve that.

We are cautiously optimistic. We’ve had a number of unprecedented hurdles in the last few years—including a global pandemic that affected global supply chains, labor and raw materials and now economic uncertainty. Despite all that, the LVT market is expected to experience growth.

This business has nearly a 40-year history, going through many recessions. The key to that kind of longevity is to be nimble and ready to pivot when necessary. Still, we’re optimistic consumers who want to remodel their homes will contribute to steady growth.

Unfortunately, we are still in the midst of a labor shortage. We have seen the greatest challenges in skilled jobs, manufacturing and warehousing. However, thanks to a strong company culture with a modern view of flexibility, promotion of work-life balance and an atmosphere focused on family, we have been able to recruit and retain talent.

The marketplace is increasingly competitive. The ability to lead development and get products to market faster is critical if you are going to thrive in this segment. Our growth is through thoughtful diversity and innovation.

Our key focuses for 2023 include product innovation and new initiatives in sustainable practices. Product innovation is, of course, always a key focus for Novalis. Along with design and innovation, sustainability is a constant cornerstone of our business. We are always looking at new and innovative ways to improve our processes as well as our product.