Executive Forecast 2023: Carpet

It will be a challenging year for business growth. As rising interest rates stay in play, consumers will be more conservative with their discretionary spending at the retail area. After Q1, we may see these numbers flatten and a return to consumer confidence. Carpet should benefit from these pull backs as it still provides one of the best value-orientated flooring products.

Patterned broadloom appears to have a growing interest in almost every market. While this segment has been slightly growing, we are seeing a more industry-wide trend for a new design option on carpeting.

New retail partnerships with the ability to provide a new value stream for their consumers. As consumers stay in their homes due to rising interest rates, we will see more home improvements/upgrades versus selling and relocating. A slowing economy will create the largest challenge for the flooring industry.

Marquis has taken our most aggressive product launch for 2023. We believe the need for value without sacrificing on quality and design will be in larger demand for 2023 due to a slowed economy.

We see the market down low- to mid-single digits. Given the higher interest rates, home prices coming down and more people staying put, I think the cost of everything else that’s impacting the market will slow things. Less discretionary money will impact home remodeling. If we see an improvement in the economy, we will have some pent-up demand and it will help carpet.

Multi-family and high end typically perform better in a down economy. New home starts will be down so the builder channel will be slower. Until we see more foot traffic in retail the mid-level price point will remain slow. We will continue to see strong performance in the high end. People who have money will continue to spend it.

Opportunities include higher-end design and color, all-pet carpet and value polyester. Challenges include new home starts and slow foot traffic in retail.

We have some outstanding launches that bring value and we have some higher-end looks with great colorations and patterns. In addition, we will be telling the SmartStrand story with our new All Pet Colorwall. Our customers will truly understand that SmartStrand brings an advantage in durability, ease of clean and softness, plus some awesome new colorations.

We expect modest growth for the industry. Supply chain, transportation and raw material costs are still impacting businesses.

We are seeing increased growth in both wall-to-wall carpets and custom-sized rugs. Both the low and high end of the rug market are driving growth.

Making products that are tailored to customers’ needs like custom sizes, on-trend colors and performance rugs are where I see the opportunities.

Realizing more efficiencies in our operations. Improving our service levels and continuing to deliver products that meet or exceed our customers’ needs.

We see residential carpet down single digits in units and flat on revenue. Residential carpet and the overall flooring market will have some challenges with the uncertainty going into next year, with single-family housing, the implications of a recession, discretionary income and affordability all playing a role.

While single-family builder will be challenged from an affordability standpoint, the typical consumer’s biggest asset is her home and consumers have enjoyed home appreciation. So, if there are going to be renovations it will be done with better-end fabrics. There are millions of aging homes in the country; at some point, there will be a renovation revolution and people will turn to premium fabrics.

Consumer preferences will be around luxury, comfort and performance. You cannot beat residential carpet for comfort under foot and acoustic properties. Our industry has to leverage that, and leverage a product that consumers aspire to have. Luxury, comfort and overall performance, or what I call livability, is what we desire.

Anso Colorwall rediscovery for 2023. We are the originator of the Colorwall and have improved and updated it to keep it relevant for our specialty retailers. We spent a lot of time with our specialty retailers talking about how we can build on improving this franchise. Second is our Pet Perfect and Pet Perfect +. Here we have struck a balance of performance guarantees and livability.

We expect the cycle from the second half of 2022 to continue for a majority of 2023 making it a more challenging year than 2022. Once we experience consistent disinflation the housing market will gain strength and business conditions will normalize and improve from its current position.

Introduction of great decorative product and continuing to promote rug fabrication as a key differentiator. Post-pandemic trends for home ownership, hybrid work and general attention to home remodeling have driven more demand for soft flooring in general despite the current softening and we believe this is an opportunity to leverage that dynamic through wholesale and retail in 2023 and well beyond.

Managing the ripple effects of inflation and recruiting will continue to be challenges in 2023. However, we view all challenges as opportunities for improvement. While difficult in the moment, they’re still opportunities. We’re carefully planning for growth in 2023.

We’re investing in a newly expanded Calhoun facility to offer our customers expanded rug fabrication, sample services and expedited shipments. We’ve added more depth to our product team to bring our customers the very best in high-style, high-quality, well-priced products. In turn, we’re adding 75 new products into soft surface.

The carpet industry will more than likely see a slight decline year over year, primarily due to economic factors impacting consumer spending on residential replacement.

With higher interest rates, home sales will continue to stagnate but should bode well for the multi-family segment. This segment still utilizes a great deal of soft surface thanks to the intrinsic properties of broadloom such as sound abatement and comfort underfoot.

Tarkett Home sees opportunities to grow our broadloom business across all segments. The key to growing in a declining market is providing great service to our customers while delivering exceptional products that are innovative.

Tarkett Home will be launching an innovative new fiber brand, Cloud 9, that will be a superior blend of comfort, performance and value. The strength of our industry-leading service paired with innovate products and great design has us excited for the year to come.

With inflation still running high and challenging economic conditions continuing, I expect the residential carpet segment to be down in the mid-single-digits range on a percentage basis in 2023. In this environment, many “would be” consumers just do not have the expendable income to focus on non-essential projects. Hopefully, we will see improvement during the second half.

First, I think higher-end carpet will continue to outperform the residential market on average in 2023. High-end carpet feeds the bound/serged custom rug segment, and I believe that will continue to be an area of growth. And although TDG doesn’t play there in any significant way, the multi-family segment should again outperform the residential market on average.

It is going to be a challenging year from an overall market conditions standpoint. However, we have initiatives planned in both soft and hard surfaces that target key market areas. We will be focused on executing these initiatives, which I believe will give us an opportunity to grow the business.

First, we are celebrating the 20_th anniversary of the Dixie Home brand in 2023. From a product standpoint, we will launch Dixie Home Elements, a series of fashionable styles at affordable price points, made with Durasilk polyester fiber. In addition, we will continue supporting our high-end Masland and Fabrica brands with EnVision nylon products. And we will again invest in our 1866 by Masland and Décor by Fabrica high-end decorative programs.