As we converge on Las Vegas once again for Surfaces, the industry’s most important event, it’s become a regularity for me to use this space to invite you to an open house—my brain—where you can view my thoughts as we head into what I confidently believe will be a stronger year than last and stronger than most pundits believe.
First, I’m thinking about the economy—interest rates and tariffs in particular. We talk a lot about mortgage rates. I don’t think they drop appreciably anytime soon, but I have changed my tune on something. People who have been waiting for rates to drop below 6% will come to the realization that 6%-7% is the new normal and will pull the trigger on a new home—provided they find one. Inventory is as much an issue as anything else. I’m particularly interested in home equity rates and HELOCs, which are currently between 8.25% and 8.5%. So many people finance their remodeling projects with these loans. People have so much equity in their homes. Nearly 40% have no mortgages. If the interest rate on home equity loans continues to drop, more remodeling activity is in the cards.
Tariffs are the wild card. How much is real and how much is rhetoric for leverage? Only time will tell. And if there are tariffs, how much and what is the potential impact?
I’m thinking about the year in general. I personally think business will be better than most believe, especially as the year progresses. Retailers saw an influx of consumers two days after the election. Many reported traffic continued into December. Retailer purchases exceeded expectations at Mohawk’s Edge Summit, CCA Global and Shaw Flooring Network events. There is confidence. Consumers wanting to remodel can sit on the sidelines for only so long.
I’m thinking about Surfaces. What will we see? Last year it was PVC-free wherever you looked. This year I’m thinking it will be a lot of WPC and laminate as people trade out of low-end SPC. I’m also thinking attendance will be strong—both on the show floor and at Eye Candy, the mecca for after-hours debauchery in the middle of Mandalay Bay.
Some things I’ll be watching throughout the year: Karastan’s high-end Black Label collection; Shaw’s concerted effort to clearly differentiate its brands; how some high-end COREtec introductions perform in the market, particularly a 3/4– inch WPC; Stanton Carpet’s rebranding to Stanton Design; and the integration of Broadlume into Cyncly and what that means for the flooring retailer as Cyncly now dominates the technology space.
I’m thinking about my friend Joel Lefkowitz, who passed suddenly a few weeks ago after a fall. At one time he and his brother Ira’s Hoboken Floors was the No. 1 distributor in the country. Rest in peace… I’m thinking about all the people in California who lost their homes and possessions in the wildfires… I’m thinking about the hostages that will soon be released and praying the majority of them are still alive.
I think Carolyn Haicl will be an extremely strong addition for Shaw as she spearheads their branding efforts. Her resume is impressive… I really like the people at Johnson Hardwood. And their products are first rate… This is the year the Dossche family gains traction with their upstart IFC/Canopy brand… The Raskin brand has gone through a rebrand and refresh. Worth checking out at Surfaces… Speaking of checking out, our interview with MSI’s Raj Shah on page 40 of this issue is a must read… It’ll be good to see Drew Hash of Southwind as he continues to recover from his accident.
Real random thoughts: Why I am prompted to tip 18%, 20% or 22% for coffee when I have to walk to some other counter to pour my own cream… If you tell multiple people the same thing when they ask for your Christmas list, you’re bound to get the same gift multiple times… How many slices of pizza have I have eaten in my lifetime?… Did you ever realize that you correct autocorrect more than autocorrect corrects you?… I’m proud of myself for achieving dry January: January 5, January 8, January 16 and January 21… Why does everyone who loses 15 pounds on Ozempic want you to think they went to the gym every day and ate healthy?… Have you noticed all of sudden people have stopped identifying as cats?
See you in Vegas.
