The flooring industry’s leading executives are predicting 2026 will look a lot like 2025 did, with market uncertainty keeping growth forecasts in the flat to perhaps 2%-3% growth range.
The same issues that conspired against the industry this year: elevated home prices, stubbornly high interest rates and tariff uncertainty are likely to remain. Tariff-driven inflation is another continuing challenge, according to executives. While the environment is stabilizing, tariffs have added complexity to sourcing and pricing across multiple categories.
While the industry waits for mortgage rates to lower and home sales to grow, one thing that isn’t idle is the pace of technology. If there is good news it is there continues to be significant innovation in the industry, which is playing a big role in leading categories like WPC and laminate.
Brent Emore, CEO
AHF Products
It seems things will remain cautious; there’s just a general sense of uncertainty out there. Mathematically it leads us to believe the industry will be around 2-3 points down.
Remodeling activity slowed down, consumer spending got quieter as things moved on. Affordability is still a major factor that will recalibrate over time. I expect commercial will outperform residential as it did in 2025. You have Healthcare, Education and Corporate Workplace doing well, with Main Street commercial doing very well. We are seeing similar performance in our own business. Some of our products, namely VCT, have seen a resurgence of sorts, and have done exceptionally well. I like our hand; now it’s a matter of executing.
There are probably a few challenges facing the industry, starting with volume and consumer hesitancy. Housing is still in a recessionary state. These are things we can’t control. Tariffs will continue to be an issue. We see most of the retail base reshuffling their product structure to allow business to thrive.
One of the interesting things is I feel like I should be frustrated; actually, I’m the opposite. I’m excited by what we can do at AHF given our products, our innovation, our brands, which gives us an opportunity to execute in a favorable way.
For us what’s becoming clearer is that having a domestic manufacturing infrastructure is becoming more of a competitive advantage. It’s really an exciting time for AHF.
James Lesslie, president/COO
Engineered Floors
The flooring market is expected to remain at a slower pace throughout much of the year. The primary constraint is macro headwinds—specifically housing affordability and interest rates—which limit large investments in both residential and commercial projects. A significant upturn is not anticipated until the macroeconomic environment changes.
We anticipate growth in key segments (remodel, new construction, multifamily, commercial) will be deferred until the second half of 2026.
The most significant product-driven growth in the industry is currently seen in innovative, high-performance categories. While this sentiment was applied to domestic digitally printed LVT in the resilient space, the overall principle suggests that growth will be driven by better goods offering superior quality and newest innovations, and high-value segments, namely products that deliver performance needs that can justify a premium in a constrained market.
The primary opportunity lies in taking share from competitors by demonstrating a superior value proposition. Specific, innovative product categories will continue to see solid growth despite the overall market slowdown.
There is long-term optimism that this current slow period will end someday, which provides a tailwind for companies that are well-positioned for the eventual recovery.
Tom Pendley, president/CEO
Mannington
I anticipate 2026 will be similar to 2025. In simplest terms—flat. We are not counting on a significant market recovery. The last couple of years we have predicted that the second half of each year would show improvement over the first. But that has not happened. So, I won’t make that prediction again because the fundamentals have not really changed. Home prices are still elevated, interest rates are stubbornly high, market uncertainty continues, tariff uncertainty lingers, and it is going to be a nasty election year. Most of these factors come into play on the commercial side as well, again creating uncertainty and, in turn, hesitation.
Like all our competitors, we are going to budget up for 2026. Specific to Mannington, we believe that our strategies around simplification and execution are working, and we will continue the growth trend we have seen in 2025.
The industry’s biggest challenges are macroeconomic costs and uncertainty. We need to see mortgage rates drop another 25 to 50 bps to offset some of the “lock-in” effect in the existing home market and to lower the costs of commercial investment. We need tariff uncertainty to stabilize. We need wage growth to exceed inflation for a period of time. As the fog lifts on these, the market will recover.
As challenging as the market has been it is easy to get caught up in the doom and gloom. The opportunities lie in tuning that out and focusing on what you as a business can control.
Jeff Meadows, president of residential sales
Mohawk
Over the past three years we’ve seen a significant decline in the industry of about 18% to 20%; 2025 has been no different, with a drop of around 4% to 5%.
For our company, we’re expecting more of the same in 2026—focusing on holding our ground rather than hoping for a big bounce back. Tariffs and trade policies, consumer caution and low existing home sales are the main factors affecting the market. However, we see bright spots, especially in the high-end market and the commercial segment, where demand has been more stable.
Economic uncertainty, with high mortgage rates and housing affordability issues, is making consumers more cautious about spending. Tariffs and trade policies are still creating a lot of volatility, which makes it hard to plan for the future. Existing home sales are at their lowest in 30 to 35 years, which means fewer opportunities for renovations. On top of that, the slowdown in single-family construction by major builders will further reduce demand.
Even with these challenges, there are some great opportunities. The high-end consumer market has remained strong. These consumers are less affected by economic concerns and are still investing in high-quality flooring.
The commercial flooring market, particularly Main Street commercial, has been more stable and offers a good chance for growth.
Raj Shah, president
MSI
We believe that 2026 is setting up to be similar to 2025. There may be growth, but it will most likely come in the second half of the year. This is under the assumption that mortgage rates continue to drop and inflation stays under control.
The number one metric we will look at is existing home sales. Once that starts ticking up, we will know there will be improvement in our industry.
The good news is there continues to be significant innovation in our industry. Technology is really influencing how inspiration is delivered. It’s also lowering the cost of inspiration. Everything from room scenes to videos can be delivered to a more targeted audience.
As it relates to products, the aesthetics continue to get better, and now surfaces are becoming more tactile. Customers are expecting tile, LVT, etc., to all be much more realistic in terms of look and feel. They’re also looking for better ROI on their purchases. We have to provide products that will not only last but increase the value of homes and offices. When introducing products, we have to continually ask which problems this product is solving and how it is helping the consumer.
There remains tons of opportunity in the industry—so much innovation in terms of new products. We just need to spend more time inspiring the consumer. There are numerous surfaces in the industry—wall, outdoors, counters—that the big players have not gotten into; so there is still ample opportunity.
Tim Baucom, president/ CEO
Shaw Industries
We expect 2026 to look very similar to 2025, with steady but cautious demand shaped by affordability, consumer confidence and the continued effect of tariffs. The pace of recovery will remain slow, but predictability should improve, and that gives customers more confidence.
For Shaw, we expect to outperform the overall market. Our make and source model gives us a meaningful advantage. We continue to invest in U.S. manufacturing for speed, service and supply assurance while our global sourcing partnerships give customers the flexibility and choice they need across categories and price points.
As for challenges, affordability remains the most significant industry challenge. Even with recent rate relief, consumers are navigating higher living and borrowing costs and that influences renovation spending and homebuying decisions.
Tariff-driven inflation is another continuing challenge. While the environment is stabilizing, tariffs have added complexity to sourcing and pricing across multiple categories. Companies with diversified supply chains, strong planning and disciplined pricing structures will be in the best position to manage through this.
We believe the companies that stay focused on reliability, transparency and customer partnership will be best positioned in 2026.
