In most years, the period between September and November would represent a promising three months for flooring dealers. Fall sales events and promotions typically drive momentum. But 2025 is anything but a typical year. For starters, dealers are unsure how the final act will play out. The optimistic ones point out the Federal Reserve appears poised to cut interest rates this month. That move should spur optimism, which in turn may unleash demand. Under such a scenario, dealers can ride off into the sunset hoping for a more serene 2026.
On the other hand, they say there are concerns lurking around every corner. Tariffs and supplier prices are increasing, and the labor market is slowing. The housing market also remains in a funk, with mortgage rates on 30-year loans hovering around 6.5%.
Even a previously booming market like Boise, Idaho, is seeing a cooling trend. “We’re starting to see some things in our market that are indicating a slight change to our expectations moving forward,” said Casey Dillabaugh, president, Dillabaugh Flooring Company, which operates Flooring America, Carpet One Floor & Home and Floor Trader Outlets. “First, housing prices in our market are stabilizing, if not starting to correct a little, to pre-COVID-19 pricing. I don’t think we’ll ever see those prices again; however, existing inventory of homes is starting to increase, and prices are better.”
For the immediate future, Dillabaugh said he is keeping an eye on the opening of a Floor & Decor store in his market, and the challenges and opportunities that the big-box retailer presents. “Floor & Decor will absolutely present a challenge primarily for our Floor Trader Outlet business,” Dillabaugh explained. “That said, it also gives our full-service Carpet One and Flooring America showrooms an incredible opportunity to deliver on our differences. It also gives the Floor Trader Outlet the opportunity to deliver what locally owned service means to those customers in that segment.”
The fall selling season often sees Independent Carpet One Floor & Home, Westland, Mich., raking in the revenue from the many sales events and promotions it runs. As for this fall? “Ugh, this is difficult,” said Cathy Buchanan, president and owner. “This one is a bit unsteady with high interest rates, tariffs and price increases. I can attempt to be optimistic, but I honestly feel it will be flat if anything. I am an optimist and would love to see a rise in Michigan, but I am sticking to flat.”
Some dealers are concerned the U.S. labor market has entered a critical demarcation. It is marked by a sharp contraction in job openings and a fragile balance between supply and demand. According to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data for July 2025, job openings fell to 7.18 million. That figure is well below the 7.37 million expected and represents the lowest level since April 2021. The specter of weaker job numbers has given rise to hopes that the Fed will lower interest rates in September.
While some dealers suggest an interest-rate cut won’t immediately help the housing market, others see its benefits as more immediate. “If the Fed actually cuts interest rates by a quarter percent later this month as expected, we believe interest rates will have finally gotten back down to the point where people will be willing to borrow again to spend on bigger ticket items— such as home improvements— which will spur sales through the end of November,” said Ted Gregerson, president/owner of Ted’s Floors & Beyond, Anniston, Ala.
Through Aug. 31, Gregerson said his business was up 2.25% over 2024, with signs pointing to a strong finish. “The last week or so there’s been a small uptick in traffic,” he said. “We are headed into what we believe could be the best 90 days of the year for us.”
Traffic has similarly increased for Pittsburgh-based ProSource Wholesale Floorcoverings & Cabinets, giving regional manager Tom Norris a jolt of confidence. “I’m starting to see signs that business is picking up again,” he said. “During the COVID-19 period, we saw a disruption in the usual seasonality of our business and were busy all of the time, but it now appears that those patterns are returning to what we experienced pre-COVID-19. Traffic has noticeably increased, and I’m optimistic that this momentum will continue. Additionally, if the Federal Reserve follows through on lowering interest rates, as they’ve indicated, I believe we’ll see a boost in consumer confidence. That could lead to more activity in new construction and an increase in loans to finance larger remodel projects. Overall, I’m feeling positive about the direction things are heading.”
Other dealers have also expressed optimism about the road ahead, undaunted by the inflationary effects of tariffs and interest rates. “This year has been much better than expected,” said Reagan Echols, president, IQ Floors, Colorado Springs, Colo. “We are up 8% and have a decent pipeline of work for the next few months. We added a lot of inventory early on to dilute the impact of tariffs, and that should continue to be our opportunity for a strong finish.”
For some flooring dealers, a strong finish is driven by affluent consumers who continue to spend big on luxury goods. As Don Lovato, president, CarpetSourceUSA, Albuquerque, N.M., explained: “The people who have the money at the high end always seem to have the money, and they’re very smart. I’m changing my advertising message to go after those people.”
